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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
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 Mon Oct 04, 2004 8:21 pm |
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^Yes, I know, and I agree. If there are many that say Kerry's leading, then I believe it. But Zogby and other polls have Bush in the lead (ZOGBY, the other most trusted poll) and others, like Gallup, have a dead heat.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Zeke Zabertini
Captain
Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 4832
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 8:37 pm |
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Republican_Man: I bought it the first time, but now I'm beginning to doubt you. Why are the two "most trusted" polls the ones that seem to most favor Bush? Please back up your credibility and provide me with sources that say these two polls are the most trusted.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 8:39 pm |
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| Zeke Zabertini wrote: | | Republican_Man: I bought it the first time, but now I'm beginning to doubt you. Why are the two "most trusted" polls the ones that seem to most favor Bush? Please back up your credibility and provide me with sources that say these two polls are the most trusted. |
They just ARE. Everyone agrees with that--but maybe you don't want to.
If all other polls aside from these two showed that Bush was behind, I would believe it. But they don't.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Zeke Zabertini
Captain
Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 4832
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 8:52 pm |
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Actually, my concern is rather opposite yours. Speaking in terms of what has been said here, you are the only one supporting these two above others. If you are the one to make an assertation, then the burden of proof falls upon you, not those that question you. I have never heard anything about either ZOGBY or Gallup. Obviously everyone does not trust them. We already know you do; who else does? Evading the question damages your credibility.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 8:54 pm |
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| Zeke Zabertini wrote: | | Actually, my concern is rather opposite yours. Speaking in terms of what has been said here, you are the only one supporting these two above others. If you are the one to make an assertation, then the burden of proof falls upon you, not those that question you. I have never heard anything about either ZOGBY or Gallup. Obviously everyone does not trust them. We already know you do; who else does? Evading the question damages your credibility. |
That is NOT true. Others have supported this poll, and it is clear that everone does NOT not trust them.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Zeke Zabertini
Captain
Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 4832
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 8:58 pm |
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I am sure that others have. I am asking you who. Please do not take this as an attack, I am merely attempting to assess how reasonable your claim is. You know just as well as I do that facts are needed to back up statements if they are to hold up under scrutiny. If you say that they are two of the most trusted polls, you should be ready to provide a basis for that statement. "They just are" is not an adequate response if I am to take you seriously.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:01 pm |
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You may think nothing of it, but from Zogby:
| Quote: | Keep ahead of the curve
Want to know what Real People are thinking?
Zogby International has been tracking public opinion since 1984 in North America, Latin America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe...
Mission:
"To Offer the Best Polling, Market Research, & Information Services Worldwide Based on Accuracy & Detailed Strategic Information."
Zogby International is constantly searching, testing and measuring hypotheses and principles on polling and public opinion research. Working with a panel of psychologists, sociologists, computer experts, linguists, political scientists, economists,and mathematicians, we explore every nuance in language and test new methods in public opinion research. It is this investment in time and money for research and development that makes us a leader in the public opinion field.
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View their FAQ [img]http://www.zogby.com/about/faq.cfm[/img]
About Gallup:
| Quote: | About Gallup
The Gallup Organization has studied human nature and behavior for more than 70 years. Gallup employs many of the world's leading scientists in management, economics, psychology, and sociology. Gallup performance management systems help organizations increase customer engagement and maximize employee productivity through measurement tools, coursework, and strategic advisory services. Gallup's 2,000 professionals deliver services at client organizations, through the Web, at Gallup University's campuses, and in 40 offices around the world.
Solutions for Organizations
Gallup's performance improvement systems are founded on a proprietary model -- The Gallup Path -- that links every employee's contribution to the organization's financial performance. To help organizations increase their profits, Gallup offers tools to:
devise and implement an effective organizational performance strategy
provide executive performance coaching for senior leaders
measure and improve customer engagement
measure and improve employee engagement
recruit and hire world-class performers
teach all employees to identify, deploy, and develop their strengths
create an objective and easy-to-use performance appraisal and review system
develop an effective succession planning system
design a performance-based compensation system for all roles
increase sales force effectiveness
Gallup has significant expertise in the automotive, business services, education, financial services, healthcare, hospitality, retail, and manufacturing industries.
Solutions for Individuals
Gallup serves individuals through its books, subscription publications, and open enrollment courses of Gallup University.
Contact us to learn more about how Gallup can help you or your organization achieve higher levels of performance.
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[img]http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=115[/img]
PLUS:
| Gallup wrote: | Kerry Pulls Even With Bush at 49%-49%
Democratic nominee John Kerry and President George W. Bush are now tied at 49% among likely voters, a gain for Kerry in the presidential race compared to polls conducted in September, before last Thursday�s first debate. Bush�s job approval rating is now at 50%, down from 54% prior to the debate. Americans, however, continue to be more likely to see Bush than Kerry as a strong and decisive leader, and to see Bush as better able to handle terrorism and Iraq, although Kerry has improved on each of these dimensions.
(Read more at http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13240) |
If you check that out, you'll clearly see that Gallup is a fair organization. You see, Bush had that major lead, and now there's a TIE in Gallup, so...
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Zeke Zabertini
Captain
Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 4832
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:03 pm |
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"So" indeed. I suppose that is better than nothing, but I would have liked to see an endorsement from an unbiased (non-internal) official source. I'll take those polls at equal value for now.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:04 pm |
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Also, from Zogby:
| Quote: | Released: October 04, 2004
Kerry Closes in on Bush Lead; It�s Now Bush 46%, Kerry 45%; Two to One, Voters Say Kerry Won the Debate; 57% Say Kerry Looked Most Presidential, But Bush Leads On Issues New Zogby Poll Reveals
Four days after the first presidential debate, Senator John Kerry has pulled within one point of President George W. Bush (46%- 45%), according to a new Zogby poll. The telephone poll of 1036 likely voters was conducted from Friday through Sunday (October 1-3, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1%.
Presidential Ticket %
Oct 1-Oct 3
Sept 17-Sept19
Sept8-Sept9
Bush-Cheney
46
47
47
Kerry-Edwards
45
44
45
Undecided
8
7
7
The race remains unchanged in a multi-candidate race. It is clear that Independent Ralph Nader is having an impact on Senator John Kerry.
Presidential Candidates %
Oct 1-Oct 3
Sept 17-Sept19
Sept8-Sept9
Republican - George W. Bush
46
46
46
Democrat - John Kerry
43
43
42
Independent - Ralph Nader
2.4
1.4
2.4
Libertarian - Michael Badnarik
.6
1.2
.9
Constitution - Michael Peroutka
.2
.1
.3
Green - David Cobb
-
-
-
Other
.3
.9
.6
Undecided
8
7
8
President Bush�s overall job performance rating is now evenly split, with less than a percentage point of likely voters saying that are undecided.
George W. Bush
Oct 1-Oct 3
Sept 17-Sept19
Sept8-Sept9
Approve
49
47
47
Disapprove
52
52
53
Undecided
.1
1
.3
Respondents are also evenly split on the track of the country. Forty-eight percent say that the country is headed on the right track, while nearly half (47%) say the U.S. is on the wrong track.
US Direction
Oct 1-Oct 3
Sept 17-Sept19
Sept8-Sept9
Right
48
43
46
Wrong
47
50
48
Undecided
5
7
6
When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 46% support the president, while nearly half (49%) still say that it is "time for someone new."
George W. Bush
Oct 1-Oct 3
Sept 17-Sept19
Sept8-Sept9
Re-Elect
46
47
46
Someone New
49
50
49
Undecided
5
3
6
More than half of respondents (59%) say that John Kerry won the first presidential debate last Thursday, while one in five (21%) favor President Bush�s performance. Fifty-seven percent believe that Kerry looked most presidential, while nearly half (49%) agree with Bush on issues.
When respondents were asked, �If your car was broken down on the side of the road, who do you think would be more likely to help you�-- nearly one in three (32%) identified Kerry, while two in five (40%) suggest Bush.
Nearly one in three (28%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on Iraq (20%); the war on terrorism (17%); health care (10%); and education (5%).
Pollster John Zogby: "The close race got even closer. There is some evidence that Kerry�s debate performance and increased clarity on the war has helped him consolidate at least some of the support that he has lost. But undecideds are up to 8 percent and there is still a month to go. There is also no doubt that Ralph Nader is hurting Kerry. The post convention bounce for Bush is over and his biggest hurdle is among undecided voters who give him a 31 percent positive job performance rating and a 69 percent negative rating. Only 13 percent of undecided voters feel that the president deserves re-election (his lowest yet) while 37 percent feel it is time for someone new.
Undecideds at 8 percent are high because we don�t push them until later. Five points of these are hard undecideds, two-points use to be with Kerry, and one point with Bush. How will they break in the end? Will they even vote?
Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1036 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Friday, October 1 through Sunday, October 3, 2004. The margin of error is +/-3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
(10/4/2004)
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((Better viewed at http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=874))
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Arellia
The Quiet One
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
Posts: 4425
Location: Dallas, TX
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:05 pm |
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*ahem* May I interject and ask what real impact the polls have on the elections? Maybe it would make one party feel a little better about their position, and maybe it would awaken some people from a party that's lower in the polls, but otherwise...? And really, shouldn't one look over all the polls, and see what the general trend is, rather than relying on one source? That being said...last I checked, in general Bush was doing pretty alright, still. Juuuuust sayin'. 
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Not the doctor... yet
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:06 pm |
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| Quote: | "So" indeed. I suppose that is better than nothing, but I would have liked to see an endorsement from an unbiased (non-internal) official source. I'll take those polls at equal value for now.
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I see them as unbiased, or biased towards I side not seen. They've had Dems ahead before--and way ahead, I'm sure.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Zeke Zabertini
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Posts: 4832
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:07 pm |
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Exalya: Undoubtably. The more places you can draw information from to form a conclusion, the better.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:10 pm |
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| Exalya wrote: | | *ahem* May I interject and ask what real impact the polls have on the elections? Maybe it would make one party feel a little better about their position, and maybe it would awaken some people from a party that's lower in the polls, but otherwise...? And really, shouldn't one look over all the polls, and see what the general trend is, rather than relying on one source? That being said...last I checked, in general Bush was doing pretty alright, still. Juuuuust sayin'. |
Yes, yes, I agree, but that is especially the case when Zogby and Gallup are in on it. However, as I said before, if most polls said one side, I would be inclined to say that that's the general trend, but this trend is that they are in a dead heat.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:31 pm |
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Time for you to go down boy...
OK, lets get some facts. I checked the polls. Bush was ahead by 13% before the election. After the election, he was behind by 3%. Deal with it, because those are the facts. He dropped the ball, and looked like an idiot in the debate. You cant contest that.
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Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:32 pm |
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| Republican_Man wrote: | | ^Yes, I know, and I agree. If there are many that say Kerry's leading, then I believe it. But Zogby and other polls have Bush in the lead (ZOGBY, the other most trusted poll) and others, like Gallup, have a dead heat. |
Wasn't it not long ago you said Gallup was the most trusted poll and you wouldn't believe anything else? I think you're changing the rules to fit your needs.
I still stand by the fact that these polls are all BS. Their sampling style leads them to generalize thus not getting a whole answer. This is the reason you see polls jump around so much.
Though I do believe this upcoming VP debate is going to make either Bush or Kerry jump to the lead. Depends on who's the better debator.
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Defiant
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:35 pm |
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Cheney has tons of experience politically, and Edwards, im not sure about. I think Cheney will do well though.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
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| Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:37 pm |
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| Link, the Hero of Time wrote: | | Republican_Man wrote: | | ^Yes, I know, and I agree. If there are many that say Kerry's leading, then I believe it. But Zogby and other polls have Bush in the lead (ZOGBY, the other most trusted poll) and others, like Gallup, have a dead heat. |
Wasn't it not long ago you said Gallup was the most trusted poll and you wouldn't believe anything else? I think you're changing the rules to fit your needs.
I am NOT doing that, and I did not say that. I just said that if Gallup had such a big lead, then I would truly believe it, and I believe in this tie/heated race.
I still stand by the fact that these polls are all BS. Their sampling style leads them to generalize thus not getting a whole answer. This is the reason you see polls jump around so much.
Perhaps, but still. Sometimes polls show something--although usually not, so yeah.
Though I do believe this upcoming VP debate is going to make either Bush or Kerry jump to the lead. Depends on who's the better debator. |
Yeah. Me too.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Defiant
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Location: Oregon City, OR
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| Tue Oct 05, 2004 1:40 am |
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I honestly dont think the VP debate will effect anything too much. Constantly the election is portrayed as "Bush vs Kerry", and crystal clear as that. Hardly the mention of Edwards or Cheney. Even though Cheney is 10 times more qualified than Bush is.
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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Jeff Miller
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Location: Mental Ward for the Mentaly Unstable 6th floor, Saint John's 1615 Delaware Longview Washington 98632
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| Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:53 am |
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if the first debate was that heated I can't wait to see the next.
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| ~Tony Montana wrote: | | You know what you need people like me people for you to snub your nose at and point at saying there is a bad man. Well guess what This bad man is leaving. Say goodnight to the BAD MAN! |
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:03 am |
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I dont think the veep debate will have much impact. I dont even think its on prime time tv like the first debate was. Its just news channels. So less americans will see it
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Defiant
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Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
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| Tue Oct 05, 2004 12:55 pm |
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LOL!!!
Gallup shows Kerry with a 6% lead.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
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| Tue Oct 05, 2004 5:45 pm |
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| Defiant wrote: | LOL!!!
Gallup shows Kerry with a 6% lead. |
If they do, then Kerry may be ahead so far, but I've seen many other polls that show either a Bush lead or a tie, so because there are MANY others, that may be innaccurate--but then again, Gallup is one of the most trusted, and yet when the majority does disagree, then there. I'd say that it is a HEATED race, nonetheless.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Defiant
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Location: Oregon City, OR
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| Tue Oct 05, 2004 7:33 pm |
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I agree with you. Follow the link above, it shows a whole bunch of polls.
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Founder
Dominion Leader
Joined: 21 Jun 2004
Posts: 12755
Location: Gamma Quadrant
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| Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:02 pm |
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What are you all talking about? Kerry is not even with Bush. Bush still has a lead on the polls....
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