| Author |
Message |
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
 Sat Sep 18, 2004 1:47 pm |
|
| Quote: | | Florida still hasn't decided (They have too much going on as is), Neither have other Big winning states. |
In general, I am pretty sure that Florida tends to vote for the Democrat. Unless the election is fixed, anyway. 
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 1:47 pm |
|
| Hitchhiker wrote: | | I think the point is that Gallup may be a trusted poll source, but that all polls have an inherent margin of error. So when two trusted polls conflict, you can tell it was because they gathered different data. |
Exactly. The polls take an intuitive survey, meaning they choose a certain number of people, and from the results they recieve they generalize about the rest.
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 1:50 pm |
|
What they do is predetermine a number of people to be surveyed, survey that many people, and then average out those opinions. Polls don't necessarily reflect the opinions of the entire populace. Which is the point every one is trying to make, right???
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Hitchhiker
Rear Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 3514
Location: Ontario, Canada
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:02 pm |
|
| Angeldust wrote: | | Which is the point every one is trying to make, right??? |
No, I thought everyone knew I was trying to definitively prove that floppy disks are inherently superior to bagels when it comes to fire fuel. 
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:06 pm |
|
^ 
Oooh, sorry. I jumped into the wrong conversation!!
Cause I think bagels are better.
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Hitchhiker
Rear Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 3514
Location: Ontario, Canada
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:08 pm |
|
| Angeldust wrote: | ^
Oooh, sorry. I jumped into the wrong conversation!!
Cause I think bagels are better. |
My point would be that I would eat the bagel and burn the floppy disk. Burning the bagel would fuel a fire, but then what would I do with the floppy disk? Bagels are better--for food. 
Anyway, back to topic. What was the topic again?
So Gallup says that Bush ostensibly has the lead in polls. Why does this matter anyway, eh?
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:35 pm |
|
^
Good point about the bagels.
I don't think polls much matter to anyone, it was just something fun we could argue about.
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:37 pm |
|
| Republican_Man wrote: | | Sure, sure, don't believe Gallup ESPECIALLY when a candidate has a THIRTEEN POINT LEED! |
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:39 pm |
|
*whispers so RM doesn't hear* I think he is the only one that thinks that polls are worth much.
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Arellia
The Quiet One
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
Posts: 4425
Location: Dallas, TX
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:42 pm |
|
| Angeldust wrote: | | *whispers so RM doesn't hear* I think he is the only one that thinks that polls are worth much. |
*AHEM*
I happen to be rather optimistic. Hearing Bush is ahead pleases me greatly. I don't see the other side of the spectrum where I live (unfortunately). I like to know that there ARE conservatives out there. And as RM said. 13 point lead. Margin of error isn't usually THAT big.
|
|
|
Hitchhiker
Rear Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 3514
Location: Ontario, Canada
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:42 pm |
|
Yes, RM was the one who posted the topic. So my question would be something like this: If it was Kerry with 55%, and Bush with 42%, would RM still have posted this topic?
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:47 pm |
|
No, the margin of error is usually between six and eight percent, if I remember correctly.
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:56 pm |
|
| Hitchhiker wrote: | | I think the point is that Gallup may be a trusted poll source, but that all polls have an inherent margin of error. So when two trusted polls conflict, you can tell it was because they gathered different data. |
I know, and I agree. However, when it IS Gallup and Gallup has THIS big of a lead, then it at least shows that Bush has quite a lead.
| Angeldust wrote: | | What they do is predetermine a number of people to be surveyed, survey that many people, and then average out those opinions. Polls don't necessarily reflect the opinions of the entire populace. Which is the point every one is trying to make, right??? |
In some cases, perhaps, but this is a Gallup poll and a candidate has a THIRTEEN POINT LEAD! That means SOMETHING, don't you think?
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
Hitchhiker
Rear Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 3514
Location: Ontario, Canada
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:01 pm |
|
| Republican_Man wrote: | | That means SOMETHING, don't you think? |
Meh, not really . . . I mean, so one candidate has a lead over the other. Although I'm sure there are many statisticians making wagers about who's going to be the next President based on the polls, I think everything will really depend on the last few weeks before the elections.
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:02 pm |
|
Okay, that candidate had a 13 point lead when 935 voters were polled. That is hardly a fraction of the US population, you realize.
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:03 pm |
|
| Angeldust wrote: | | Okay, that candidate had a 13 point lead when 935 voters were polled. That is hardly a fraction of the US population, you realize. |
Hmmm...It shows into it, though.
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:12 pm |
|
Depending where the poll took place.
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:13 pm |
|
| Angeldust wrote: | | Depending where the poll took place. |
It's GALLUP. I believe it a good amount. That, coupled with such a lead, is what I trust.
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:50 pm |
|
You really shouldn't. Not when A small part of the populous is surveyed to express the will of the whole populous.
There are way to many factors which put this poll back into the BS realm. Location, People tested, How tested, etc.
-------signature-------
"Dissent is the highest form of patriotism." President Thomas Jefferson
"A man's respect for law and order exists in precise relationship to the size of his paycheck." Adam Clayton Powell Jr.
|
|
|
Hitchhiker
Rear Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 3514
Location: Ontario, Canada
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:53 pm |
|
Plus, what about those mischevious people who intentionally provide false answers when surveyed for a poll, eh? Gotta account for them . . .
::adds that to The Big List::
|
|
|
Arellia
The Quiet One
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
Posts: 4425
Location: Dallas, TX
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 6:33 pm |
|
...can someone tell me why this is really worth debating? I mean, really. It's a poll. There's room for error. But more than one poll has shown Bush in the lead. Either like it or don't. In my opinion.
|
|
|
Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:45 pm |
|
| Republican_Man wrote: | | Sure, sure, don't believe Gallup ESPECIALLY when a candidate has a THIRTEEN POINT LEED! |
|
|
|
Theresa
Lux Mihi Deus
Joined: 17 Jun 2001
Posts: 27256
Location: United States of America
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:52 pm |
|
 A typo! I must ban RM immediately! (and all others who have done so....)
We all know Gallup is a very well known poll. It's used it just about everything. Like JD Power and Assoc. Always there.
-------signature-------
Some of us fall by the wayside
And some of us soar to the stars
And some of us sail through our troubles
And some have to live with our scars
|
|
|
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:59 pm |
|
| Theresa wrote: | A typo! I must ban RM immediately! (and all others who have done so....)
We all know Gallup is a very well known poll. It's used it just about everything. Like JD Power and Assoc. Always there. |
Yeah, and so that's particularly why I believe it. And yes, we ALL make typos!
| Quote: | Plus, what about those mischevious people who intentionally provide false answers when surveyed for a poll, eh? Gotta account for them . . .
|
I don't think of that at all. Maybe one or two people do it, but...
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
|
Search
FAQ
Log in
