| Author |
Message |
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
 Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:16 pm Bush 55%, Kerry 42%--Gallup Poll! |
|
Alright folks, this is a GALLUP poll, one of the MOST TRUSTED POLL SOURCES. And so this is where I trust the polls--when it's Gallup and ESPECIALLY when ANY Candidate--even if it's Kerry--has this lead.
| Quote: | Bush Bounce Keeps On Going
In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters. These figures represent a significant improvement for Bush in the past three weeks, since just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention. Bush's job approval is at 52%, unchanged from his post-convention approval. Independent candidate Ralph Nader receives 3% to 4% of the vote, while Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik gets 1%. None of the other minor-party candidates gets as much as 1%. |
| Quote: | GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters. These figures represent a significant improvement for Bush since just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention.
In the immediate aftermath of that convention, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush receiving a modest bounce from his standing before the convention. Among likely voters, Bush's support was up two points and Kerry's was down two points. Among the larger sample of registered voters, Bush's support was up two points, while Kerry's was unchanged.
The bounce was small, whether measured among the likely or the registered voter groups, so that it was well within the margin of error of the post-convention poll. Given the sample sizes of the two groups, one could not say with 95% certainty that Bush's support had actually increased.
Now, in the new poll, the figures show Bush with a 13-point lead over Kerry among likely voters and an 8-point lead among registered voters. Both sets of figures represent significant increases in Bush's standing in the race since just before the beginning of the Republican convention in late August, when likely voters chose Bush over Kerry by a slight three-point margin (50% to 47%), and registered voters leaned toward Kerry by an even smaller margin of one point (48% to 47%).
Bush's job approval rating has not changed in the past week and a half, though it did increase from 49% before the Republican National Convention to 52% right after -- where it has remained.
Nader receives 3% support among likely voters and 4% among registered voters. Badnarik garners 1% support among each group, while the other two candidates receive less than one-half of 1% support. The results for the minor-party candidates may be slight overestimates because the candidates will not appear on all 50 state ballots, as Bush and Kerry will.
Respondents were also asked to indicate whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of the candidates, or if they had never heard of the candidates. Among the minor-party contenders, only Nader is recognized by the vast majority of Americans (just 4% say they have never heard of him). By contrast, large majorities have never heard of Badnarik (65%), Cobb (58%), and Peroutka (69%).
If only those who give the candidates a rating are counted, 23% of Americans know enough of Badnarik to rate him either favorably or unfavorably, compared with 27% for Cobb, and 18% for Peroutka. It is also possible that some of the ratings were given not because respondents knew of the candidates, but because of their perceptions of the parties the candidates represent.
Younger Voters Show Greatest Change in Past Three Weeks
The poll shows that among registered voters, people under age 50 are more likely to change their minds than people in the 50 to 64 age group, and those 65 and older. Kerry had a one-point advantage (48% to 47%) among 18- to 49-year-old voters just before the Republican National Convention, but now Bush enjoys a 13-point lead among this group (54% to 41%). This represents a net increase in Bush's standing of 14 percentage points.
Bush's Lead Over Kerry Among Registered Voters
From Late August Until Mid-September
(Percentage Lead for Bush)
The other two age groups show much smaller changes. Among the middle age group (50 to 64), Kerry gains slightly. Now Bush leads Kerry in this group by 50% to 49%, while he led by 51% to 44% three weeks ago.
In the oldest age group (65+), Bush trailed Kerry by five points three weeks ago (50% to Kerry to 45% for Bush), but now Bush has a one-point advantage (48% to 47%).
Bush gained about equally among men (his lead is up nine points) and women (up eight points). Three weeks ago, Bush had a 6-point advantage among men (51% to 45%), while today that advantage is 15 points (56% to 41%). Similarly, Bush trailed Kerry by seven points among women three weeks ago (51% for Kerry to 44% for Bush), but Bush is up by one point now (49% to 48%).
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,022 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 13-15, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is �3 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 767 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is �4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.
For results based on the sample of 935 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is �4 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. |
http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13066
Check that link for numbers!
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:24 pm |
|
Lies...All lies...
|
|
|
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:26 pm |
|
| Defiant wrote: | | Lies...All lies... |
Lies! Lies my butt! Gallup is ONE OF THE MOST TRUSTED POLLING SERVICES!!! How could you call it a lie? Oh, wait. You just don't want to believe it. I SERIOUSLY WOULD believe it if Kerry had that kind of lead.
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:27 pm |
|
Pretty much, lets imagine:
I am sitting with RM. RM is saying that Bush is leading in the polls. I have my fingers in my ears, saying "LA LA LA LA" really loud.
Yep, I dont want to believe it at all. It makes me sad. 
|
|
|
Arellia
The Quiet One
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
Posts: 4425
Location: Dallas, TX
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:30 pm |
|
...RM's not saying it. Gallup is. Must point that out. 
...and this pleases me...
|
|
|
Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:32 pm |
|
OK, fine. Lets all laugh and point at Defiant. Go ahead, you know you want to.
|
|
|
Arellia
The Quiet One
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
Posts: 4425
Location: Dallas, TX
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:39 pm |
|
*points to her piece of logic and leaves it at that*
|
|
|
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:40 pm |
|
*points to the truth and leaves it at that*
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:43 pm |
|
That hurts even more than the laughing at me thing.
Yah, but I dont mind. You see, Oregon is basically given up to Kerry. So ive done my part. I see literally 50 times more Kerry signs on peoples lawns, and kerry stickers on peoples cars. So either people care that much, or the Bush people dont care about Oregon enough to come here. Which I doubt, since Cheney was here this morning.
|
|
|
Arellia
The Quiet One
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
Posts: 4425
Location: Dallas, TX
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:45 pm |
|
... *was trying to be semi-nice, actually*
Oregon, California...paint 'em blue. *sighs*
|
|
|
Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:46 pm |
|
LOL, yes. Blue paint. Blue paint good...
Maybe everyone is Florida will run away because of the hurricanes, and no one will vote for Bush. That could be cool. LOL.
|
|
|
Arellia
The Quiet One
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
Posts: 4425
Location: Dallas, TX
|
| Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:49 pm |
|
Let us not go that far. One can only hope there's sane people in Florida... (I say this in good humor only, I assure)
|
|
|
Zeke Zabertini
Captain
Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 4832
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 12:03 am |
|
California rules. It's the state with the most electoral votes, and they go to the Democrats. I say hey-o to that. Is there a thread on this site made for debate? I'm seeing a lot of topics that are pro- and anti- Bush/Kerry, and a lot of poll topics, but not one that just says "let's talk about it like civilized people without screaming at each other or trying to make one another feel bad" ...or something along those lines. You get my drift. If you can tell me where one is, let me know. If not, I'm going to make one. If there's one thing the Chit Chat forum can use it's intelligent, composed dialogue.
|
|
|
Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 12:05 am |
|
By all means Zeke. By all means.
|
|
|
Arellia
The Quiet One
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
Posts: 4425
Location: Dallas, TX
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 12:05 am |
|
California's OKAY. The valley's better. On the north coast, you get yelled at for stating your opinion--JUST by saying you're conservative--not making an argument, or anything. Just stating your stance. THAT is not nice. I do not appreciate that. And Zeke...the thread idea sounds good--not starting the topic off to be dividing.
|
|
|
Captain Dappet
Forum Revolutionist
Joined: 06 Feb 2002
Posts: 16756
Location: On my supersonic rocket ship.
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:02 am |
|
| Exalya wrote: | ... *was trying to be semi-nice, actually*
Oregon, California...paint 'em blue. *sighs* |
Paint 'em red! 
-------signature-------
"Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste"
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 7:54 am |
|
^ 
I could've guessed you would say that!
| Quote: |
"let's talk about it like civilized people without screaming at each other or trying to make one another feel bad" ...or something along those lines. You get my drift. If you can tell me where one is, let me know. If not, I'm going to make one. If there's one thing the Chit Chat forum can use it's intelligent, composed dialogue |
Good luck with that one Zeke. The people on this forum can be pretty unrelenting if they think they are right. (I do not exclude myself from this statement!)
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 10:08 am |
|
^Yeah, of course, but oftn things like that HAPPEN in debate. It's a wonder how Zeke doesn't see that
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
Zeke Zabertini
Captain
Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 4832
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 11:27 am |
|
Don't be shooting down my dreams, now! I'ma go make a debate thread. I swear to god though, I'll disown it if it decends to shouted rage.
|
|
|
Zeke Zabertini
Captain
Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 4832
|
|
|
Angeldust
The Mob Queen
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 6498
Location: In your most wonderful, screwed up dreams. :P
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 12:08 pm |
|
^
Thank you for the fabulous new topic, Zeke. Hope to see you there for some kind hearted, ruthless debate.
-------signature-------
"You want to dance with the angels? Then embroider me with gold; and I will fly with the angels...and you can dance with me."
|
|
|
Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 1:39 pm |
|
Yawn.
I could grab like 4 other "Trusted" polls That would say either differently or the same. It's not like these polls matter, The people running them take an intuitive survey and then generalize about the rest based on their results.
Bush has Texas, Ohio, Virginia and Tennessee in the bag
Kerry has California, Oregon, Illinois and New York in the bag.
Florida still hasn't decided (They have too much going on as is), Neither have other Big winning states.
|
|
|
Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 1:40 pm |
|
| Link, the Hero of Time wrote: | Yawn.
I could grab like 4 other "Trusted" polls That would say either differently or the same. It's not like these polls matter, The people running them take an intuitive survey and then generalize about the rest based on their results.
Bush has Texas, Ohio, Virginia and Tennessee in the bag
Kerry has California, Oregon, Illinois and New York in the bag.
Florida still hasn't decided (They have too much going on as is), Neither have other Big winning states. |
Sure, sure, don't believe Gallup ESPECIALLY when a candidate has a THIRTEEN POINT LEED!
And you forgot that Bush has Colorado in the bag.
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
|
|
|
Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 1:43 pm |
|
| Republican_Man wrote: |
Sure, sure, don't believe Gallup ESPECIALLY when a candidate has a THIRTEEN POINT LEED!
And you forgot that Bush has Colorado in the bag. |
Not according the election Scorecard. They're leaning towards him but haven't chosen him yet.
|
|
|
Hitchhiker
Rear Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 3514
Location: Ontario, Canada
|
| Sat Sep 18, 2004 1:44 pm |
|
I think the point is that Gallup may be a trusted poll source, but that all polls have an inherent margin of error. So when two trusted polls conflict, you can tell it was because they gathered different data.
|
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group
Star Trek �, in all its various forms, are trademarks & copyrights of Paramount Pictures
This site has no official connection with Star Trek or Paramount Pictures
Site content/Site design elements owned by Morphy and is meant to only be an archive/Tribute to STV.com
|
Search
FAQ
Log in
