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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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 Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:41 am First in the Nation Primary: New Hampshire |
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Just after midnight eastern time the very first New Hampshire primary results were in from the now-traditional first primary nation! The first New Hampshire results from Dixville Notch are in!
In the small town of 74 citizens, 17 voted. On the Republican side:
McCain wins with 4, Romney with 2, Giuliani with 1.
On the Democratic side, Richardson got 1, Edwards got two, and Obama got a whopping 7 votes! (Notice Hillary scored none.)
I think the overall winners of this contest will be identical to the overall results. My predictions for New Hampshire are:
Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
Republicans:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
I'm sticking with Rudy for 3rd place instead of Huckabee only for this reason: I think he has a better chance at garnering the support of independents than Huckabee given the fact that people think of him more often than not as a moderate (which I believe to be a false impression), and they're not so socially conservative in New Hampshire, certainly not like Iowa by any stretch. However, I could be wrong and Huckabee could pull out a 3rd-place victory, as the current poll average shows.
For the Democratic race, I think it's pretty clear-cut.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Tue Jan 08, 2008 8:28 pm |
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Big Win for John McCain; Hillary leading in NH
CNN and FOX News have already declared John McCain the winner of the New Hampshire primary, waging a decisive victory over rival Mitt Romney. Mitt's campaign is now in serious trouble, to be sure; he spent so much money on this race that it's a stunning setback. Massachusetts neighbors the state, and he has a vacation home there, for cripe's sake! He's still in play, however, and I still do not foresee any clear winner pulling out of the January Republican contests.
As of now the results are as follows:
Republicans (15% in):
1. McCain- 37%
2. Romney - 28%
3. Huckabee- 12%
4. Giuliani - 9%
5. Paul - 8%
Democrats (14% in):
1. Clinton - 40%
2. Obama - 36%
3. Edwards - 17%
4. Richardson - 4%
5. Kucinich - 2%
I'll keep this topic updated as the results come in.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:00 am |
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John McCain Wins GOP Contest; Hillary Pulls Surprise Victory
As of now the results are as follows:
Republicans (95% in):
1. McCain- 37%
2. Romney - 32%
3. Huckabee- 11%
4. Giuliani - 9%
5. Paul - 8%
Democrats (95% in):
1. Clinton - 39%
2. Obama - 36%
3. Edwards - 17%
4. Richardson - 5%
5. Kucinich - 2%
| Republican_Man wrote: | | For the Democratic race, I think it's pretty clear-cut. |
It looks like it wasn't as clear-cut and dry as I and virtually everyone else thought - including Hillary's and Barack's own campaigns - as Hillary Clinton has surprisingly pulled out a victory in New Hampshire.
I have always held steadfast that she will get the nomination, and I started to doubt that this week but even today told one of my teachers in a discussion that I believed she still has a "solid chance" as I began to lose some confidence in her chances. Now, however, I've regained some confidence in that prediction, and I think a victory in New Hampshire certainly helps her to at least definitely have that "solid chance" and certainly a better chance than expected at securing the nomination.
The exit polls of both CNN and FOX News showed that either most or half of Obama's support was from independents while Hillary got the majority of Democrats. This doesn't bode well for Obama in many of the future states where you have to be a member of the party in order to vote in the primary. If registered Democrats disproportionately vote for Hillary, and I believe a majority of younger voters are registered independents (and they are the driving force between the Obama candidacy), she's got the upper hand in many of the upcoming races.
John McCain clearly stole a lot of the independents from Obama, as the independent vote was going to go either way and it was split about evenly, from my understanding of the exit polls. The question for McCain now, however, is, he won in New Hampshire based on his support from independents, like in 2000, but can he convince conservatives now that he is the man for the job, given his positions on immigration, campaign finance, and taxation?
One thing I do have to say is that, much as I dislike his politics and don't want to see him elected to office, I recognize the fact that Barack Obama energizing, for he energized me slightly in his speech tonight. I think his policies would be horrible for this country, but the way he speaks is riveting in a way that you just don't get from other candidates, and that's something that I like about him. Politically-speaking, I'm glad Hillary won, as I think she's the easiest to beat, but personally, I'd prefer Obama to have won as, disagree with him though I do on his policies, I do like him on that personal level. But I see little more than personability and likability that work for him.
All eyes now turn to Michigan and South Carolina. Michigan is irrelevant for the Democrats because only Hillary's on the ballot and the party rules have stripped that state's delegate votes away, but on the Republican side, if Mitt Romney loses to John McCain in that state, the state in which his father was governor, it may well be the last straw. According to the RCP averages, Huckabee's got a commanding lead in South Carolina over McCain, followed by Romney, and so it's looking less likely that the former governor can pick up steam and win South Carolina. I'm really starting to think that it's do-or-die for Romney in Michigan now, it's really looking that way.
Rudy's looking good in Florida, though, where he's besting Huckabee by 5.2 percentage points in the average. Here's to a Rudy victory January 29th!
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Wed Jan 09, 2008 8:28 am |
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I thought Clinton was finished after Iowa and that Obamamania was just gonna sweep the nation. However i was wrong, thankfully! Go Clinton Go!
I'm please McCain won as well, i wouldn't mind him being president. Good man!
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squiggy
Stooge Two
Joined: 09 Mar 2004
Posts: 3007
Location: Messing with the fabric of Video Game realities. I'll summon Shiva on you! I SWEAR!
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| Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:18 am |
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Go hillary! Go Hillary! GO HILLARY GO!!!
Yay!!!
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