Iowa Caucus Predictions

[CJ Cregg]

Participants in the Iowa Caucus will be as follows

Democrats: Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson

Republicans: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney

Predict the top 3 in each party!

[CJ Cregg]

Democrats

1st - Edwards
2nd - Clinton
3rd - Obama

Republicans

1st - Romney
2nd - Huckabee
2rd - McCain

[LightningBoy]

Republicans - Romney, Huckabee, Paul
Democrats - Clinton, Obama, Edwards

[Republican_Man]

Talk about an exciting day!!

My predictions:

Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Republicans:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

The only reason I'm going with Romney is because of his organization, which is incredibly strong in Iowa. However, I would not rule out a Huckabee victory; I think there is a high probability that he can pull this thing off, and I will be far from surprised if he wins. Edwards also has a good chance of placing 2nd in Iowa. To be honest, though, I really don't think anyone can accurately predict either of these races; they're so darn close.

The RealClearPolitics poll averages show an order of Obama-Clinton-Edwards and Huckabee-Romney-McCain, with the respective leaders achieving points of 1.6 or 3.0 ahead of the second-place candidate, respectively. Note that McCain is just one decimal point ahead of Thompson; I think Thompson has a good chance of coming in 3rd because he's still got strength in rural communities and so forth, giving him a boost in those areas. But McCain's equally likely, given his surge. I have to go with Thompson, however, given the rural factor.

[Republican_Man]

Looks like, according to the early entrance polls, the Democratic predictions here may have been correct, but the Republican order may not be so.

Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Republicans:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson

My instincts told me Huckabee would win, but I instead went with Romney solely due to his organization and money. The Democratic side's liable to change, but there's a high probability the Republican side will roughly stay the same. I hope it does, as my belief is that if Huckabee wins in Iowa and McCain wins in New Hampshire, Romney will have to work hard to win in the other states before Super Tuesday. If these votes are broken up amongst those three candidates, no clear winner will prevail, and Rudy can enter into the fray with a greater chance for success.

The caucus results are starting to come in. As it stands:

Democrats (46% in):
1. Obama - 34%
2. Edwards - 32%
3. Clinton - 32%
4. Richardson - 2%

The Democratic side has a good chance of changing because of the discussion factor before voting.

Republicans (25% in):
1. Huckabee - 35%
2. Romney - 24%
3. Thompson - 14%
4. McCain - 12%

[Republican_Man]

Slight changes to be made:

Democrats (72% in):
1. Obama - 35%
2. Edwards - 31%
3. Clinton - 31%
4. Richardson - 2%

Obama's steadily risen, though the Democratic side is still real tight. It's looking real strong that Obama will place first and either Clinton or Edwards will be second.

Republicans (41% in):
1. Huckabee - 31%
2. Romney - 23%
3. Thompson - 13%
4. McCain - 12%

A little bit ago on Fox News Romney all but conceded defeat in Iowa, and Fox News is projecting a Huckabee victory. The big story will be who places 3rd in that race; Thompson's steadily shrunk down a few points to 13, and McCain may pull out a tie, or even ahead, of Thompson; we'll just have to see.

[Puck]

NBC has projected Obama with the Democratic victory.

[Republican_Man]

[Republican_Man]

Complete results:

Democrats (84% in):
1. Obama - 37% - WINNER
2. Edwards - 30%
3. Clinton - 30%
4. Richardson - 2%
5. Biden - 1%
6. Dodd - 0%

It now looks to me like Edwards will place second and Hillary will place 3rd.

Republicans (65% in):
1. Huckabee - 34% - WINNER
2. Romney - 25%
3. Thompson - 14%
4. McCain - 13%
5. Paul - 10%
6. Giuliani - 4%
7. Hunter - 0%

[Republican_Man]

FINAL RESULTS:

Democrats (100% in):
1. Obama - 38% - WINNER
2. Edwards - 30%
3. Clinton - 29%
4. Richardson - 2%
5. Biden - 1% - DROPPED OUT
6. Dodd - 0% - DROPPED OUT

Edwards' lead over Hillary is incredibly thin, very much like Thompson's over McCain, only that ones closer. Both those Democrats are essentially in a virtual tie for 2nd place. Fox News has declared it a "virtual tie in delegate equivalents."

Also, breaking news: Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have announced that they are dropping out of the race. The second tier is starting to be disbanded on the Democratic side.

Republicans (96% in):
1. Huckabee - 34% - WINNER
2. Romney - 25%
3. Thompson - 13%
4. McCain - 13%
5. Paul - 10%
6. Giuliani - 3%
7. Hunter - 0%

Thompson and McCain are essentially tied for third. Due to his strained resources, I believe the rumor released today that Thompson will pull out in a few days if he doesn't have at least a solid third place standing may yet prove true, and I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls out sometime around New Hampshire.

I must also say that Huckabee gave a fantastic victory speech. It was pleasant, it was well-given, it was well-written, and it was both witty and funny, as well as meaningful I really enjoyed it.

Obama's speech was phenomenal as well, I must say, both well-written and rhetorically sound, not to mention given well. His passion and sincerity just shone through, even if I disagree with him politically.

Both Huckabee and Obama have similar qualities. They're charismatic, appealing, friendly, sincere, personable, genuine, and great communicators. But they can't escape the question about the issues: where do they stand, do they have the right experience, and so forth. Personally they're appealing, but issue-wise they will both face increased scrutiny as a result of their respective successes.

I will soon have a complete analysis of the Iowa Caucuses; stay tuned.

[Arellia]

Even though Clinton and Edwards are basically tied, the "third place" title is still going to hurt Hillary, just like second place is going to help Edwards. When you use words like that--as the press and most people regularly do--the margin between the two is less significant.

This was exactly like I hoped the race would go, so I'm very pleased--with the democrats, at least. I really don't care too much about the Republicans, although I think Huckabee will be an abysmal general election candidate.

Anyway, very interesting result, with Obama in a much more powerful position than most people predicted (the near-10-point lead from Clinton especially).