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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
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Location: Classified
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 Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:09 pm Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world |
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Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1552092,00.html
Heard about this on Savage the other day. I'm anxious to see how it turns out.
| Quote: | Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world
Russian pair challenge UK expert over global warming
David Adam, science correspondent
Friday August 19, 2005
The Guardian
Two climate change sceptics, who believe the dangers of global warming are overstated, have put their money where their mouth is and bet $10,000 that the planet will cool over the next decade.
The Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev have agreed the wager with a British climate expert, James Annan.
The pair, based in Irkutsk, at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, believe that global temperatures are driven more by changes in the sun's activity than by the emission of greenhouse gases. They say the Earth warms and cools in response to changes in the number and size of sunspots. Most mainstream scientists dismiss the idea, but as the sun is expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades the Russian duo are confident they will see a drop in global temperatures.
Dr Annan, who works on the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer, in Yokohama, said: "There isn't much money in climate science and I'm still looking for that gold watch at retirement. A pay-off would be a nice top-up to my pension."
To decide who wins the bet, the scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a US climate centre between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.
If the temperature drops Dr Annan will stump up the $10,000 (now equivalent to about �5,800) in 2018. If the Earth continues to warm, the money will go the other way.
The bet is the latest in an increasingly popular field of scientific wagers, and comes after a string of climate change sceptics have refused challenges to back their controversial ideas with cash.
Dr Annan first challenged Richard Lindzen, a meteorologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is dubious about the extent of human activity influencing the climate. Professor Lindzen had been willing to bet that global temperatures would drop over the next 20 years.
No bet was agreed on that; Dr Annan said Prof Lindzen wanted odds of 50-1 against falling temperatures, so would win $10,000 if the Earth cooled but pay out only �200 if it warmed. Seven other prominent climate change sceptics also failed to agree betting terms.
In May, during BBC Radio 4's Today programme, the environmental activist and Guardian columnist George Monbiot challenged Myron Ebell, a climate sceptic at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, in Washington DC, to a �5,000 bet. Mr Ebell declined, saying he had four children to put through university and did not want to take risks.
Most climate change sceptics dispute the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which suggest that human activity will drive global temperatures up by between 1.4C and 5.8C by the end of the century.
Others, such as the Danish economist Bjorn Lomborg, argue that, although global warming is real, there is little we can do to prevent it and that we would be better off trying to adapt to living in an altered climate.
Dr Annan said bets like the one he made with the Russian sceptics are one way to confront the ideas. He also suggests setting up a financial-style futures market to allow those with critical stakes in the outcome of climate change to gamble on predictions and hedge against future risk.
"Betting on sea level rise would have a very real relevance to Pacific islanders," he said. "By betting on rapid sea-level rise, they would either be able to stay in their homes at the cost of losing the bet if sea level rise was slow, or would win the bet and have money to pay for sea defences or relocation if sea level rise was rapid."
Similar agricultural commodity markets already allow farmers to hedge against bad weather that ruins harvests. |
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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madlilnerd
Duchess of Dancemat
Joined: 03 Aug 2004
Posts: 5885
Location: Slough, England
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:27 am |
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Whether climate change is a result of greenhouse gases or not, we still need to cut down on our carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. Acid rain is so damaging. 9 out of every 10 trees in Germany has been damaged by acid rain, and it's not from pollution in Europe (ours drifts over to Asia), it's from the pollution in the US. When Asia gets even more developed, then America will start to have a problem with acid rain, and that big statue of Abe Lincolm you have will get a deformed worn away face.
But, anyhoo, back on topic. These men are idiots. Don't they realise that the climate could change naturally like it has for millions of years? Scientists were making a big deal because it was warm enough to make wine in England, but historical records show that the Romans did this.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:18 pm |
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| madlilnerd wrote: | | But, anyhoo, back on topic. These men are idiots. Don't they realise that the climate could change naturally like it has for millions of years? Scientists were making a big deal because it was warm enough to make wine in England, but historical records show that the Romans did this. |
They are scientists that are very intelligent. Thre is NO REASON for calling them an idiot because they made a bet that the Earth would cool in the next 10 years. I happen to think that they could be right--what, with the expectation that this winter will be the coldest in a LONG time.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Jeremy
J's Guy
Joined: 03 Oct 2002
Posts: 7823
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
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| Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:09 am |
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Haven't you seen "The day after tomorrow". Of course it's going to get colder. The warm air stops the NAD and we all enter an ice age.
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LightningBoy
Commodore
Joined: 09 Mar 2003
Posts: 1446
Location: Minnesota, U.S.A.
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| Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:19 pm |
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Well, if you want to talk about cutting back on Co2 emissions, then you should support President Bush's multi-billion dollar programs to further develop the hydrogen car, and fusion reactors.
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PrankishSmart
Rear Admiral
Joined: 29 Apr 2002
Posts: 4779
Location: Hobart, Australia.
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| Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:32 pm |
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| Jeremy wrote: | Haven't you seen "The day after tomorrow". Of course it's going to get colder. The warm air stops the NAD and we all enter an ice age.
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Wasn't that because a giant chunk of ice broke off and melted though? I seem to recall that at the start of the movie.
In any case, I doubt we will see the extremes like in that movie.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
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| Wed Aug 24, 2005 4:26 pm |
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That movie's a work of fiction to send fear into the people, that's it. Not worth using in this argument.
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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webtaz99
Commodore
Joined: 13 Nov 2003
Posts: 1229
Location: The Other Side
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| Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:42 pm |
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There was a grain of truth in it. If too much ice melts, the salinity of the oceans will change, which will change the deep ocean currents which do modulate Earth's climate.
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"History is made at night! Character is who you are in the dark." (Lord John Whorfin)
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Otter
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 12 Oct 2004
Posts: 12895
Location: England
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| Thu Aug 25, 2005 4:54 am |
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Humankind have been raping this planet for years!, unless we take action fast Now it's going to die under us.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
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| Thu Aug 25, 2005 5:54 pm |
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| Otter wrote: | | Humankind have been raping this planet for years!, unless we take action fast Now it's going to die under us. |
And your actual point was intended for...?
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"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Jeremy
J's Guy
Joined: 03 Oct 2002
Posts: 7823
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
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| Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:31 am |
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Presumably that we should sort things out now.
| PrankishSmart wrote: | | Jeremy wrote: | Haven't you seen "The day after tomorrow". Of course it's going to get colder. The warm air stops the NAD and we all enter an ice age.
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Wasn't that because a giant chunk of ice broke off and melted though? I seem to recall that at the start of the movie.
In any case, I doubt we will see the extremes like in that movie. |
No, the big bit of ice that broke off was a result of global warming, causing the ice to melt. And probably the stuff there won't happen, but it does have a scientific basis, albeit not in that time period.
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Five - seveN
Rear Admiral
Joined: 13 Jun 2004
Posts: 3567
Location: Shadow Moon
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| Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:10 am |
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| Republican_Man wrote: | | Otter wrote: | | Humankind have been raping this planet for years!, unless we take action fast Now it's going to die under us. |
And your actual point was intended for...? |
The fact that we, humankind, are kind of polluting and hunting our planet to death, and that certain people do not seem to notice.
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LightningBoy
Commodore
Joined: 09 Mar 2003
Posts: 1446
Location: Minnesota, U.S.A.
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| Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:09 pm |
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Is our planet dying? No.
Humankind made this planet livable. Before we came along it was just a mold infested ball of dirt, now, it's got nice cities, roads, homes, dams, ect...
I just don't get why the left is so dead-set about being negative about humanity. You've got no reason to feel guilty, our accomplishments are spectacular; be proud of them.
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Hitchhiker
Rear Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 3514
Location: Ontario, Canada
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| Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:28 pm |
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With a population of six billion and increasing every day, we are not sustainable. The Earth's carrying capacity simply can't support that much, not at our present rate of living.
| Dr. MacPhail, Island by Aldous Huxley wrote: | 'You seem to have solved your economic problems pretty successfully.'
'Solving them wasn't difficult. To begin with, we never allowed ourselves to produce more children than we could feed, clothe, house, and educate into something like full humanity. Not being over-populated, we have plenty. But although we have plenty, we've managed to resist the temptation that the West has now succumbed to - the temptation to over-consume. We don't give ourselves coronaries by guzzling six times as much saturated fat as we need. We don't hypnotize ourselves into believing that two television sets will make us twice as happy as one television set. And finally we don't spend a quarter of the gross national product preparing for World War III or even World War's baby brother, Local War MMMCCXXXIII. Armaments, universal debt, and planned obsolescence - those are the three pillars of Western propsperity. If war, waste, and moneylenders were abolished, you'd collapse. And while you people are over-consuming, the rest of the world sinks more and more deeply into chronic disaster. Ignorance, militarism, and breeding, tehse three - and the greatest of these is breeding. No hope, not the slightest possibility, of solving teh economic problem until that's under control. As population rushes up, prosperity goes down.' He traced the descending curve with an outstretched finger. 'And as prosperity goes down, discontent and rebellion' (the forefinger moved up again) 'political ruthlessness and one-party rule, nationalism and bellicosity begin to rise. Another ten or fifteen years of uninhibited breeding, and the whole world, from China to Peru via Africa and the Middle East, will be fairly crawling with Great Leaders, all dedicated to the suppression of freedom, all armed to the teeth by Russia or America or, better still, by both at once, all waving flags, all screaming for Lebensraum.' |
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Jeremy
J's Guy
Joined: 03 Oct 2002
Posts: 7823
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
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| Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:50 pm |
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| LightningBoy wrote: | Is our planet dying? No.
Humankind made this planet livable. Before we came along it was just a mold infested ball of dirt, now, it's got nice cities, roads, homes, dams, ect...
I just don't get why the left is so dead-set about being negative about humanity. You've got no reason to feel guilty, our accomplishments are spectacular; be proud of them. |
Are you having a laugh? It was liveable before, humans just redesigned large areas of it for our needs and distroyed other bits we didn't. It's not all bad, but it's just the way were are living is not a good way to keep on going when would could be more aware of helping stop our world being damaged.
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Sat Aug 27, 2005 6:23 pm |
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Humans have only existed in a tiny fraction of the earths history. There were millions of animals etc before us.
E.g Dinosaurs
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
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| Sat Aug 27, 2005 6:44 pm |
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| CJ Cregg wrote: | Humans have only existed in a tiny fraction of the earths history. There were millions of animals etc before us.
E.g Dinosaurs |
And your [relevant] point is?
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IntrepidIsMe
Pimp Handed
Joined: 14 Jun 2002
Posts: 13057
Location: New York
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| Sat Aug 27, 2005 6:45 pm |
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I think I'm going to go outside and hug a tree.
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-Wuthering Heights
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