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Puck
The Texan
Joined: 05 Jan 2004
Posts: 5596
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 Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:16 pm Kerry's debate showing not translating to popularity |
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Poll: Presidential race still tight
Kerry's debate showing not translating to popularity
(CNN) -- Although Americans think Sen. John Kerry did the best job in the debates, the Democratic nominee appears to have lost some ground to President Bush in the popularity contest, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday.
The poll interviewed 1,013 adult Americans by telephone Thursday through Saturday, including 942 who identified themselves as registered voters and 788 who indicated they were likely to vote.
In the previous Gallup poll, taken October 9-10 after the second debate on October 8, Kerry and Bush were tied at 48 percent among registered voters. (Full story)
The latest poll, taken after the third and final debate last Wednesday in Tempe, Arizona, indicated an edge of 49 percent to 46 percent for Bush among the same group.
That is still practically even -- given the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The October 9-10 poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
But among likely voters Bush had a larger spread -- 52 percent to 44 percent. That compared with a 49 percent to 46 percent edge for Bush in the previous poll.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 percent among both groups in each poll.
In the most recent poll, 46 percent of all those interviewed thought Kerry did a better job in last week's debate than Bush, who had 32 percent. Yet as Democrat Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into electoral votes.
As in 2000, Bush's favorability ratings -- how Americans view him as a person -- went up after a debate that voters say he lost -- from 51 percent in the October 9-10 poll to 55 percent in the most recent poll.
Kerry's favorability rating remained flat, at 52 percent in both polls. The question had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
One reason Kerry has not been able to translate his debate showing into a lead in the popularity contest could be that voters think he is too liberal.
Bush emphasized that label at Wednesday's debate, and it seems to be sticking. Nearly half of all respondents -- 47 percent -- in the most recent poll said Kerry's political views are too liberal. Four in 10 said Bush is too conservative. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Kerry got one major advantage out of the debates. Fifty-seven percent of all respondents saw him as able to handle the job of commander in chief -- compared with 53 percent in an October 1-3 Gallup poll and 49 percent in a September 24-26 poll.
Yet Bush is still seen as a better commander in chief and a stronger leader, by a 53 percent to 44 percent margin.
The margin of error on those questions was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Bush also apparently picked up ground on education and health care in the third debate, which concentrated on domestic issues.
In the most recent poll, 49 percent of all respondents said he would do a better job on education than Kerry, who had 46 percent. The October 9-10 poll had Bush at 43 percent and Kerry at 50 percent.
On health care, 52 percent now say Kerry would do a better job, compared with 56 percent in the previous poll. Bush's percentages went up from 37 percent to 43 percent.
Those questions had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election (77 percent) than do Democrats (65 percent) and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in Gallup's likely voter model.
Respondents who identified themselves a Bush voters were also nearly unanimous in thinking their candidate would win -- 88 percent. A quarter of Kerry voters said they think their candidate would lose.
Regardless of how they are planning to vote, Americans appear to think this is the most important election in recent memory.
When asked whether the outcome matters more than in previous elections, 72 percent of all respondents said yes, compared with 47 percent in 2000 and 41 percent in 1996.
All those questions had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Find this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/poll.sunday/index.html
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:19 pm |
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All I can say is "Yes, Yes, Yes! Yay for Bush, yay for the Republicans, yay for me, and yay for America!" 
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:41 pm |
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I doubt the validity.
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:46 pm |
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| Defiant wrote: | | I doubt the validity. |
It's CNN!! However, polls aren't to be trusted too much, unless there's a great trend.
-------signature-------
"Rights are only as good as the willingness of some to exercise responsibility for those rights- Fmr. Colorado Senate Pres. John Andrews
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Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:25 pm |
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I deny everything.
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Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 12:25 am |
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stop being like Bush.
Again, the Validity of polls like this are slim to none. I've said it with all the polls that have been released. They take a small sample of people and generalize about the rest of the populous.
and 788 of those tested are said to be "likely to vote". Now that makes no sense.
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Defiant
Fleet Admiral
Joined: 04 Jul 2001
Posts: 15946
Location: Oregon City, OR
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 1:46 am |
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| Link, the Hero of Time wrote: | | stop being like Bush. |
LOL! Yah, im just too lazy to read the article.
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Jadzia Lenara Dax
Garbage Queen
Joined: 17 Oct 2001
Posts: 5761
Location: Sunnydale, California
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| Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:03 am |
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Also with polls online, it's incredibly hard to get an accurate sampling of the people. It all depends on who happens to access the webpage and vote.
Now see, when I went to one of the news sites right after the third debate ended--I think it was MSNBC's site--Kerry was winning as far as poll votes go. *shrugs* So I suppose it's just whomever happens to vote at that time.
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"I can't stand someone who can outdepress me." -Shirley Manson, Garbage
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