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Dirt
Exercise Boy
Joined: 19 May 2003
Posts: 2086
Location: a tree
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 Sat Jun 11, 2005 3:45 pm |
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But not as fast as it does now, it kinda makes sense though. Started after the indusralisation, you don't think... oh no, maybe that might have something to do with it!  
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:53 pm |
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| Dirt wrote: | | But not as fast as it does now, it kinda makes sense though. Started after the indusralisation, you don't think... oh no, maybe that might have something to do with it! |
No. The climate increase has occurred .5*C every hundred years. In 1880 is when it started to rise .6*C, and it hasn't gone up even further.
LB's right. Naturally.
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Dirt
Exercise Boy
Joined: 19 May 2003
Posts: 2086
Location: a tree
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| Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:29 pm |
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Who's your source, the oil lobby? You know, there's nothing to gain here for anyone but a clean and safe world.
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Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
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| Sat Jun 11, 2005 8:16 pm |
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I thought this was not only funny, but very relavent.
| Quote: | Trial of the Century: Co-Conspirators Convicted
February 2005
People can be convicted of murder on the basis of overwhelming circumstantial evidence, as the public has been reminded recently. The same is true of three odious, though not odorous, "greenhouse gases", which have been observed lurking in the Earth's atmosphere.
The ring-leader, code-named "see-oh-two", or CO2 (carbon dioxide), is the boisterous one who demands attention, but two taciturn sidekicks, code-named CH4 (methane) and N2O (nitrous oxide), were also accused. Expert testimony revealed that the wispy CH4 had been almost as brutal as rotund CO2 in toying with planet Earth's climate. Reliable intelligence revealed that the three defendants were conspiring for a spectacular final attack on planet Earth, with heat and pestilence, ferocious storms, and rising seas to overwhelm coastal areas.
Figure 1. See following caption Figure 1: Antarctic (Vostok) ice core records of temperature, CO2 (upper) and CH4 (lower) including time-scale adjustment to account for ice-gas age difference associated with the time for air bubbles to be sealed (Petit et al. 1999) and corrected for variations of climate in the water vapor source regions (Vimeux et al. 2002) as described in Supporting Text of Hansen and Sato (2004). (View as large PDF)
Evidence was shown during the trial (Fig. 1) that the Earth's temperature had tracked closely the presence of the accused for hundreds of thousands of years. Confronted with this circumstantial evidence, a composed CO2 responded calmly "this evidence is misleading. It is the baryon planets, Jupiter and Saturn, who are to blame for tugging at Earth and changing its orbit." He even accused saintly Venus of skirting close by Earth, like a siren, inducing the spinning Earth to tilt its axis.
However, the prosecution showed that the Earth's orbital twitches were only guiding pacemakers, their message carried by sunbeams to all regions of the Earth in different seasons. The three culprits had willingly followed the sunbeams' cue, sometimes seeping together from the soil and seas into the air, and other times diving back into subterranean lairs, almost always traveling together so as to wreak the greatest possible havoc upon the Earth's climate.
Hammered not only with this circumstantial evidence, but also with the common knowledge of their force in blocking heat radiation, CH4 cracked. "Why blame us? H2O is a bigger culprit in the long run, snowing and glaciating the way he does, ever so slowly making himself into huge ice sheets. H2O is the problem! When we came out again, he started melting and dripping and sliding, and all of a sudden, boom, he collapsed! He caused the flooding!"
H2O testified that it was true, but he was powerless to stop the effects of their heat on him. "And I have always tried hard to deliver clean fresh drinking water to everyone, and I want to do so in the future!"
CO2, sensing empathy for H2O, rose lawyer-like to object. "Let not chameleon H2O fool you. Experts have shown that he, coating the ground with snow and ice, is the greater force in changing climate (Fig. 2)!"
The revered long-lived yodyte was called on. "Aye, in days of yore they worked in concert, CO2 and CH4 stealing away to withdraw their heat, H2O falling as gentle snowflakes, building mile-thick ice sheets over millennia. As CO2 and CH4 returned, the ice was dripping, sliding, and boom, floods and warming climate, in the twinkling of a century or so!"
"And now?"
"Now," the yodyte continued, "CO2 and CH4 from the dark side are joining their brethren. Their numbers, more than 375 for CO2 and 1750 for CH4 are off the scale of Fig. 2. Such heating has never been experienced in the age of humanoids."
"What does it mean?" The yodyte paused and bowed his head. "I feel a force, a long struggle. The feeble pull of the planets is now fruitless. Alien CO2 and CH4 are a much more dominant force. H2O, as always, must follow. The future is murky, still in the making."
H2O was acquitted. CO2, CH4, and N2O were convicted. However, their devilish plot to terrorize the modern world, as they had the ancient worlds, was already far advanced. The planet was now populated by humanoids, a remarkably resourceful species � perhaps growing a bit flaccid as they indulged in the pleasures of their inventions � but they were basically peaceable, and trusting, perhaps even gullible!
A gleam entered the beady eyes of plump self-confident CO2. Their conviction need not foil their plot if they were not bottled up in jail; perhaps the judge would parole them! CO2 was articulate, trained in the sciences at MIT, he could debate with the best, and his message fell on welcoming ears. He knew that humanoid leaders would be reluctant to act on the scientific verdict. It was easier to deny it. Many leaders and their financial supporters had vested interests in the status quo. They could find a way for CO2 to keep his freedom, at least for long enough to get that traitor H2O sweating and weakened beyond recovery! Oh, what sweet revenge!
Figure 2. Cartoon of ice age climate forcings Figure 2. The Earth must be in radiative (energy) balance within a very small fraction of 1 W/m2 averaged over the current interglacial period as well as during the peak of the last ice age 20,000 years ago. The changes in atmospheric composition and surface properties, indicated here, which maintained a global temperature difference of 5�1�C between the ice age and the interglacial period, are known accurately. They imply that climate sensitivity is 3/4�C per W/m2, which corresponds to 3�1�C for a doubled CO2 forcing of 4 W/m2 (Hansen et al. 1993). (View as large PDF)
Hansen and Sato (2004) dispassionately examined the status of this melodrama by going beyond the circumstantial data, finding a discouraging, but not hopeless situation. CO2 has craftily avoided attempts to bottle it up. It has now reached a level of 378 ppm. More important, it has increased its underlying growth rate to 1.9 ppm per year. Given the inertia in the world's energy infrastructure and growing global economies, it now seems impractical to avoid reaching a level of at least 440 ppm.
The CO2 amount of 440 ppm is a critical threshold. Other things being "normal", it is the peak CO2 amount in a scenario (1) that would keep additional global warming from exceeding 1�C (1.8�F). Based on the history of the Earth, it is estimated that warming greater than 1�C above today's level would weaken the ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica, causing eventual rise of sea level by several meters.
On the bright side, Hansen and Sato showed that if CH4 emissions decreased substantially, rather than continued to increase, it would allow the critical threshold of CO2 to be higher. Some CH4 emissions are easier to deal with than CO2. A concentrated global effort to reduce CH4 and other trace gas emissions may allow the CO2 amount to be as great as 520 ppm without spelling doom for the ice sheets. Reducing N2O emissions, for example via more carefully measured application of nitrogen fertilizers, would also help.
A program to reverse CH4 growth would require global cooperation, but it could be a positive, enabling experience, analogous to the global program to control chlorofluorocarbons. However, the benefits from CH4 reduction would be wiped out if at least the beginning steps to limit CO2 were not initiated at the same time.
The possibility of finding a practical, beneficial way out of the Earth's climate predicament, by dealing with the entire group of causative agents, is a hopeful vision. This climatic melodrama will be playing longer than any soap opera. Stay tuned for the next episode.
References
* Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and H. Wilson 1993. How sensitive is the world's climate? Natl. Geog. Res. Exploration 9, 142-158.
* Hansen, J. and Mki. Sato 2004. Greenhouse gas growth rates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 16109-16114.
* Petit, J.R., et al. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399, 429-436, doi:10.1038/20859.
* Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and J. Jouzel 2002. New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 203, 829-843, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00950-0.
Contact
Please address all inquiries about this research to Dr. James Hansen.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_11/
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:10 pm |
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| Dirt wrote: | | Who's your source, the oil lobby? You know, there's nothing to gain here for anyone but a clean and safe world. |
www.globalwarming.org
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Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
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| Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:40 pm |
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so basically, yes.
| Quote: | Members
"Cooler Heads" members are non-profit, non-partisan, public policy, taxpayer, activist, seniors, and consumer groups:
Alexis de Tocqueville Institution
Americans for Tax Reform
American Legislative Exchange Council
American Policy Center
Association of Concerned Taxpayers
Center for Security Policy
Citizens for a Sound Economy
Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow
Competitive Enterprise Institute
Consumer Alert
Defenders of Property Rights
Fraser Institute, Canada
Frontiers of Freedom
George C. Marshall Institute
Heartland Institute
Independent Institute
Istituto Bruno Leoni, Italy
JunkScience.com
National Center for Policy Analysis
National Center for Public Policy Research
Pacific Research Institute
Seniors Coalition
60 Plus Association
Small Business Survival Committee
Global warming website - The Cooler Heads Coalition has a web site solely dealing with global warming issues, www.globalwarming.org. This site, designed and maintained by Consumer Alert, pools together information from experts both inside and outside of the coalition and serves as a clearinghouse for information on global warming science and policy proposals. After only four months, it was listed by the New York Times as being among the top fifteen environmental websites, and it was the only market-oriented website listed. |
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Republican_Man
STV's Premier Conservative
Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 14823
Location: Classified
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| Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:03 pm |
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Doesn't mean a thing. It's a non-biased site, and if it is biased, then it's towards exposing the TRUTH about global warming.
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Link, the Hero of Time
Vice Admiral
Joined: 15 Sep 2001
Posts: 5581
Location: Kokori Forest, Hyrule
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| Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:46 pm |
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| Quote: | | The Cooler Heads Coalition formed May 6, 1997 to dispel the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific, and risk analysis. Coalition members will also follow the progress of the international Global Climate Change Treaty negotiations. |
It was created to do that. If that's not biased I dont know what is.
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LightningBoy
Commodore
Joined: 09 Mar 2003
Posts: 1446
Location: Minnesota, U.S.A.
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 3:57 am |
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Scientists today are out for Grants. Who is more likely to give grants: liberals.
Fact of the matter, you can like the increase in the population of timberwolves to the increase in colorectal cancer, if you write a rhetorical enough report.
Another good point to make is that ONE naturally occuring volcano can, potentially, produce more CO2 than man ever has. Nature does this stuff to itself, she's a tough cookie. We need not worry. (Plus, even if it is our problem now, the future will inevitably hold the answers, it always has. [mankind IS invincible])
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:21 pm |
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Jeremy
J's Guy
Joined: 03 Oct 2002
Posts: 7823
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:24 pm |
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| Jeremy wrote: | | Quote: | About GlobalWarming.org
This web site is a project of the Cooler Heads Coalition, a sub-group of the National Consumer Coalition.
The Cooler Heads Coalition formed May 6, 1997 to dispel the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific, and risk analysis. Coalition members will also follow the progress of the international Global Climate Change Treaty negotiations. |
Sounds unbiased. Their description alone says they were formed to show it wasn't true and also it's linked to the economy, so will be supporting it. |
As I mentioned earlier about the site.
Sometimes I wonder about the future. It's going to be truely screwed at this rate. America has 1/4 of the pollution from the planet, and then people saying mankind isn't doing to pollute much are generally American's "caring" (in the long term it's going to be more screwed than if we act now) about the economy. Hmmm, coincidence?
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Theresa
Lux Mihi Deus
Joined: 17 Jun 2001
Posts: 27256
Location: United States of America
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:45 pm |
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There was also a study that proved cow farts were depleting the ozone layer. Hamburger, anyone?
| Quote: | Details aside, animal methane does present a definite threat to the biota. It's believed 18 percent of the greenhouse effect is caused by methane, putting it second on the list of offending gases behind carbon dioxide. Methane breaks down in the atmosphere to form carbon dioxide, ozone, and water, all of which absorb heat. The temperature of the atmosphere rises, the ice caps melt, and next thing you know you're pumping the Atlantic Ocean out of your basement.
There are several major sources of methane: rice paddies (methane-producing bacteria thrive in the underwater environment), swamps and wetlands (ditto), mining and oil drilling, landfills, termites (although there's still some controversy on this one), "biomass burning" (notably in the Amazon rain forest), and animals. Ninety percent of animal methane is produced by ruminants (i.e., cud-chewers). These include sheep, goats, camels, water buffalo, and so on, but most of all cattle, of which the world has an estimated 1.2 billion.
Ruminants eat hay and grass and stuff containing cellulose, which can be digested only by special microbes that, to minimize commuting problems, live in the ruminants' guts. Unfortunately, the microbes tend to make a mess, and about 6 or 7 percent of what they eat winds up as methane. Thus the problem.
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Last edited by Theresa on Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Jeremy
J's Guy
Joined: 03 Oct 2002
Posts: 7823
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:48 pm |
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Basically the same with humans and other animals. But it's to a far lesser extend that something like thousands of tonnes of coal being burned at a power station each day.
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:51 pm |
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That is true, any fart does. It contains Methane which is a greenhouse gas. But this has always been the case. Theres juts much more domestic farm animals now.
BTW is has nothing to do with the OZONE layer. Its global warming. there 2 seperate things caused by two sperate things
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Jeremy
J's Guy
Joined: 03 Oct 2002
Posts: 7823
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:54 pm |
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The survey doesn't show how much is from it though, it is likely to be a very small percentage of the worlds methane production.
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Theresa
Lux Mihi Deus
Joined: 17 Jun 2001
Posts: 27256
Location: United States of America
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:56 pm |
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| charmed88 wrote: | That is true, any fart does. It contains Methane which is a greenhouse gas. But this has always been the case. Theres juts much more domestic farm animals now.
BTW is has nothing to do with the OZONE layer. Its global warming. there 2 seperate things caused by two sperate things |
| Quote: | | The temperature of the atmosphere rises, the ice caps melt, and next thing you know you're pumping the Atlantic Ocean out of your basement. |
Sounds a little like something getting warm to me,  Besides, I haven't really studied this, I was just posting.
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 6:58 pm |
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Yeah which is GLOBAL WARMING. The Ozone hole is nothing to do with global warming
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Theresa
Lux Mihi Deus
Joined: 17 Jun 2001
Posts: 27256
Location: United States of America
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 7:01 pm |
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Oh, so breaking things down isn't allowed, gotcha, 
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 7:03 pm |
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| Theresa wrote: | | Oh, so breaking things down isn't allowed, gotcha, |
huh?? What do you mean by that? 
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Jeremy
J's Guy
Joined: 03 Oct 2002
Posts: 7823
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 7:05 pm |
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Basically they don't have anything to do with each other, but yet they do. It's a lot of the chemicals that are produced in industries that impact both, but it's things such as CFC that affect the Ozone layer and C02 that affect global warming (or supposedly do.)
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Theresa
Lux Mihi Deus
Joined: 17 Jun 2001
Posts: 27256
Location: United States of America
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 7:07 pm |
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Basically what he said, but not. All kinds of things together are causing this problem, not only me driving my car to work.
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 7:21 pm |
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The VAST MAJORITY of it is due to humans though
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Theresa
Lux Mihi Deus
Joined: 17 Jun 2001
Posts: 27256
Location: United States of America
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 7:25 pm |
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I didn't disagree,
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LightningBoy
Commodore
Joined: 09 Mar 2003
Posts: 1446
Location: Minnesota, U.S.A.
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 7:57 pm |
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Why not show a grid that shows anything before the *arbitrary* 1800 landmark?
Tempratures go up and down thousands of times over millennia. A single spike is nothing to fear.
Hmmm.... NATURAL.[/img]
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CJ Cregg
Commodore
Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 1254
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| Sun Jun 12, 2005 8:09 pm |
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The greenhouse effect is Natural. And yes the earth does go through cycles. But we are SPEEDING it up and making it happen faster than it should
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